CKD Calculator

CKD risk equations have been previously adopted into clinical practice, but there are no equivalent methods for members of the general public to engage with and identify their risk self reported and readily available risk factors.

The CKD calculator is a web based too designed to spread awareness and help people improve their health behaviours as they relate to CKD. The calculator asks general questions about a person’s health, and behaviours to determine score that describes a person’s risk of developing CKD in the next 8 years. Detailed clinical information such as blood pressure or laboratory measurements are not necessary for an accurate risk assessment, to help ensure that the calculator is appropriate for all audiences.

To do this We identified a preliminary list of candidate predictors using information from a systematic literature search and availability in the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). Data from 22,200 individuals in Ontario, Canada was used to develop a model, which was then validated using 15, 522 individuals from the UK Biobank to ensure predictive performance. As many individuals may not know their baseline eGFR level, we developed separate models for individuals with and without a baseline eGFR.

The time-averaged c-stat for models with and without baseline eGFR were 83.5 (95%CI 82.2 to 84.9, without 81.0 95%CI79.8 to 82.4) The c-stat ranged from 86.3 to 77.6 from years 1 to 8 with a baseline eGFR and 82.8 to 71.2 from years 1 to 8 without a baseline eGFR.

The model calibration slope was 1.002(95%CI 0.944-1.061) and 0.991 (95%CI 0.923-1.06) with and without baseline eGFR, respectively and over prediction among those with a high estimated risk.The predicted 5-year risk was 0.0967(with baseline eGFR) and 0.0972 (no baseline eGFR) compared to an observed risk of 0.0977. Across years 1 to 8, the Brier score ranged from 1.4 to 10.2 for the model with baseline eGFR and 1.4 to12.0 without.

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‍References

Noel AJ, Eddeen AB, Manuel DG, Rhodes E, Tangri N, Hundemer GL, Tanuseputro P, Knoll GA, Mallick R, Sood MM. A health survey-based prediction equation for incident CKD (Development and External Validation of The Chronic Kidney Disease Population Risk Tool). Submitted to CJASN.

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