CVDport Calculator

A predictive algorithm for 5-year risk of incident cardiovascular disease. Developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys (CCHS). Cardiovascular incidence is a first hospitalization or death for major cardiovascular event. The main predictors are health behaviours (smoking, diet, physical activity and alcohol consumption). The model is currently calibrated for Canada 2013 with provisions to calibrate to other countries.

There were 104 219 respondents aged 20 to 105 years, 3 709 cardiovascular events, and 818 478 person-years follow-up in the combined derivation and validation cohorts.

5-year cumulative incidence - males = 0.026, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.025–0.028; females = 0.018, 95% 0.017–0.019.

Discrimination - c-statistic: male model = 0.82, 95% CI 0.81–0.83; female model = 0.86, 95% CI 0.85–0.87.

Calibration - overall population 5-year observed cumulative incidence versus predicted risk: males = 0.28%; females = 0.38%. Calibration slope females: 0.9734, SE 0.0698; for males: 0.9295, SE 0.0731. Observed versus predicted < 20% difference in predefined policy-relevant subgroups (206 of 208 groups) at P

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT02267447

‍