Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT)
A predictive algorithm for 5-year risk of incident cardiovascular disease. Developed and validated using the 2001 to 2008 Canadian Community Health Surveys (CCHS). Cardiovascular incidence is a first hospitalization or death for major cardiovascular event. The main predictors are health behaviours (smoking, diet, physical activity and alcohol consumption). The model is currently calibrated for Canada 2013 with provisions to calibrate to other countries.
There were 104 219 respondents aged 20 to 105 years, 3 709 cardiovascular events, and 818 478 person-years follow-up in the combined derivation and validation cohorts.
5-year cumulative incidence - males = 0.026, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.025–0.028; females = 0.018, 95% 0.017–0.019.
Discrimination - c-statistic: male model = 0.82, 95% CI 0.81–0.83; female model = 0.86, 95% CI 0.85–0.87.
Calibration - overall population 5-year observed cumulative incidence versus predicted risk: males = 0.28%; females = 0.38%. Calibration slope females: 0.9734, SE 0.0698; for males: 0.9295, SE 0.0731. Observed versus predicted < 20% difference in predefined policy-relevant subgroups (206 of 208 groups) at P
Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT02267447
Additional reference data includes:
• An interactive algorithm visualization tool that displays the contribution of the main predictors and the role of age and exposure interactions.
• CVDPoRT model in XML format (Predictive Modelling Markup Language);
• 500 beta coefficients to calculate statistical uncertainty; and,
• Fictitious examples (n = 20 000) of exposure input and output, including intermediate calculation steps.
See the API/developer page for additional information.
Manuel, D., Tuna, M., Bennett, C., Hennessy, D., Rosella, L., Sanmartin, C., . . . Taljaard, M. (2018). Development and validation of a cardiovascular disease risk-prediction model using population health surveys: the Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT).
Canadian Medical Association Journal,190(29), E871-882. doi:doi: 10.1503/cmaj.170914
Taljaard, M., Tuna, M., Bennett, C., Perez, R., Rosella, L., Tu, J. V., . . . Manuel, D. G. (2014). Cardiovascular Disease
Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT): predictive algorithm for assessing CVD risk in the community setting. A study protocol.
BMJ Open, 4(10), e006701.doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006701